Iohannis: România are nevoie de un guvern stabil și de un premier integru. Preşedintele Klaus Iohannis a semnat marți decretul privind desemnarea lui Mihai Tudose (un om cu atîtea nuanţe gri în biografie, care minte cu seninătate chiar în documentele oficiale... :).

Dorin Tudoran m-a banat pentru un comentariu în care i-am atras atenția că Marin Preda este teleormanez (Încă un 'telectual deranjat de criticile aduse Securității ceaușiste. Dorinele, dracu' te-a pus să-ți curgă din gură. Până la tine n-am mai întâlnit 'telectuali analfabeți funcțional :) (Propagandiștii semuiști mă întreabă adesea de ce critic Securitatea și dacă sunt fiu de general securist. Pe bune, acum, sunt chiar atât de proști? :).

Recomandare pentru economistul Florin Cîtu - Warren Mosler (logică elementară)
Recomandare pentru economistul Lucian Isar - Scott Sumner (e varză)

Libertarianul Bogdan Glăvan este bugetofag. Libertarianul John Galt (comentacul) este bugetofag. Libertarianul Cristian Păun este bugetar.
Think tank-ul care alimentează tonetarii grobieni, de dreapta, cu raționamente din prepuțul gândirii neanderthaliene, e alcătuit din asistați social.
Ai 2 vaci sterpe și un tractor ruginit? Numele tău e John Galt, țiitorul planetei. "Survenția" la hectar și asistența socială de care te bucuri atât timp cât faci umbră pământului degeaba nu sunt decât distorsiuni ale... nuvelei.

joi, 15 octombrie 2009

"Sfârşitul crizei" versiunea Croitoru

... în loc de "lincs" sau "Sfârşitul crizei!!!" 2.

Tehnocrat român
"Sunt semne că se apropie sfârşitul crizei. Economia mondială îşi revine, comerţul mondial îşi revine. Deficitele din SUA s-au redus, a scăzut de asemenea şi surplusul din Asia. Toate acestea sunt elemente care arată că sfârşitul crizei este aproape", a spus Lucian Croitoru. Sursa
Greater Fools' Game
140…That’s the current P/E for the S&P 500 based on reported earnings (earnings that include write-downs). The Tech Bubble, which by all accounts was an extraordinarily overpriced market traded around a P/E of 40 during its peak.
I realize not everyone likes to use reported earnings as a measure of value. After all, all those write-downs that are obliterating reported earnings are a one time event due to the worst credit collapse in 80+ years.
So let’s look at operating earnings (earnings without write-downs included). Today, the S&P 500 trades at a P/OE of 27.6. Put another way, assuming no earnings growth, if you bought the entire market at its current value today, it would take 30 years for you to break even on the deal.
Now, to be blunt, there are times when paying 30 times operating earnings for a business makes sense. If the business is a market leader worldwide, then the price is not too steep (this is roughly what Mars paid for Wrigley, Proctor & Gamble paid for Gilette, etc). If you’re buying a brand that dominates your industry, paying 30 times operating earnings isn’t bad.
But paying 30 times operating earnings for the entire S&P 500... including businesses that are insolvent or bankrupt : AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, etc? Sorry but I cannot imagine anyone in their right mind would be willing to pay that price.
This bubble is going to end, just like the last one: badly. Sursa
What this all boils down to is the overly-optimistic crowd is playing the Greater Fools' Game once again. Some players realize it. Most don't. One thing is for certain, not everyone can leave the Greater Fool's Train at the same time once it starts heading in reverse. Sursa
Crash Alert
Our ‘Crash Alert’ flag goes back up the pole ... The Dow rose another 20 points yesterday to a new bounce record. Oil rose to over $73. Gold didn’t budge. Of course, everyone now knows that the recession is over. NABE interviewed 44 economic forecasters. Four-fifths of them said the recession was over. But we don’t care what they said. These are the same seers who missed the biggest single event in financial history. There are many banking crises, recessions, panics and defaults in the record books. But none were as great as the one that hit September a year ago. Most economists didn’t see it coming; why should we trust them to tell us when it is going?
We just lived through the biggest bubble in history. Get ready for the biggest bust.
Yesterday’s news tells us that consumer spending as a percentage of the entire economy has edged up to 71%. How could consumer spending be going up? Hold on, cupcake. It’s not going up. It’s going down. It’s just that the other components of the economy are going down even more.
...Consumer credit is going down (we reported the figures earlier in the week)…unemployment is going up…consumer spending is going down… …those are not the circumstances in which stocks sell for 27 times earnings…and move higher. Those are the circumstances in which stocks crash.
It is also becoming clearer and clearer that the feds’ efforts aren’t really working. They can give money to their friends in the banking industry. They can give money to speculators who then make bets on the stock market, among other things. They can bailout major companies. But they can’t really get much money into the real economy.
Au contraire; they take money OUT of the real economy. The feds will absorb $700 billion of private savings this year alone…to finance their deficit. They expect $1 trillion deficits at least for another 10 years. That won’t leave much money for the private sector. Sursa
Rallies of this magnitude don't end on bad news. They end on great news. The news should get even better. Its expected!
Except underneath, if you look at the nuts and bolts, you'll realize its still a FIRE (Financials, Insurance, Real Estate) economy that just doubled down its bet at the roulette wheel.
FIRE economies don't produce anything real. They manufacture false wealth and skim from the nation's coffers. The consumer is dead. A new world-wide frugalness is slowly taking hold of the social order. There is no stopping this. There is no enticing the masses to change what their free will tells them they must do.
Governments will be under siege to stop the spending madness. Fear of the unknown (collapsed financial system as we know it) is way worse then a Great Depression II that has an intact and familiar financial system (the dollar). Sursa
Goldman Sachs
Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggested Tuesday that, despite a 50 percent run-up in stock prices that has left the Dow Jones industrial average just shy of 10,000 and the S&P 500 selling at 20 times earnings, stocks are still cheap.
Just because Goldman is recommending this to its clients, however, doesn't mean Goldman is putting its own money behind the new bull market in mergers and acquisitions. Sursa
Ponzi Finance

Normally, debt levels as a percent of GDP would be uninteresting and immaterial; however, the current level of debt is unique in two ways. First, the asset side of the balance sheet purchased by the debt is falling in price. Second, the money that was borrowed to purchase those assets was often fraudulently expended. Neither the borrower nor the lender really expected the debt to be serviced. Rather, each party expected the asset price to rise extinguishing the debt.
This type of financial arrangement was correctly analyzed by the famous American economist Hyman Minsky in his paper, "Financial Instability Hypothesis", in which he described three phases of debt financing. The first is "hedge finance", where the lender expects a return on both principal and interest. The second is "speculative finance" where the lender expects to get interest on the loan but perhaps not the principal. The third case, where the lender expects neither the principal nor interest to be returned, is referred to as "ponzi finance".
This was typified in the last business cycle by loans issued without documentation, no down payment home loans, extremely low cap rates on commercial real estate, and the high leverage borrowing ratio of private equity funds. Even ponzi finance works as long as asset prices are rising. But once the bubble is pricked, the debtor is left with declining asset values that preclude the rollover of their obligations.
Presently, in this worst of all post-war recessions we are witnessing the collapse of asset prices that were inflated by the speculation of earlier years. The aftermath of that speculation and its impact on the economy has been thoroughly studied prior to our present business cycle by the economists of yesteryear who marveled at the mania in the collective mindset of private citizens and their elected representatives who produced such bubbles.
From a fiscal policy perspective the outlook for economic growth appears to be one of stagnation for several years due to the size of the federal debt, which is expected to rise 35.7% from 2008 levels to 76.5% of GDP over the next ten years according to the Office of Management and Budget. This exercise in government spending is, of course, an exact replica of the Japanese experience from 1989 to the present. Their debt to GDP ratios have gone from about 50% in 1988 to about 178% today, and yet their nominal GDP is no higher than it was 17 years ago, and their employment stands at
twenty year ago levels. It is somewhat unsettling that as of the last employment report the United States employed 131 million people, a level that was first reached in 2000, which means the United States has had no net job gains for almost ten years. Indeed, it appears that the fiscal chain around the free market neck is sufficiently onerous to restrain growth for several years. The promise of the government to revive growth through increased indebtedness is, indeed, an impossible promise. Sursa

Lucian Croitoru, propunerea Presedintelui Traian Basescu pentru postul de premier.
Lucian Croitoru, in varsta de 52 de ani, este consilierul guvernatorului BNR Mugur Isarescu de peste 10 ani.
A fost reprezentant al Romaniei la Fondul Monetar International in calitate de Senior Adviser al Executive Directors. Sursa
What exactly is the function of the financial sector in our society? Simply this: Its sole function is supplying capital efficiently to aid the real economy. The financial sector is a tool to help those that make real tools, not an end in itself. But five fatal flaws in the financial sector's current structure have created a monster that drains the real economy, promotes fraud and corruption, threatens democracy, and causes recurrent, intensifying crises. William K. Black, Assoc. Professor, Univ. of Missouri, Kansas (Deci nu-i Ţaigais') Sursa
OK, marele tehnocrat anterior, Isărescu, a fost tata Caritasului, mama FNI-ului, fratele FMI-ului (Traian Remes[o bomboană de om]: "Premierul Isarescu a fost singurul om alaturi de mine in discutiile cu FMI") şi naşul sistemului bancar românesc.
Motoul bancilor: Ce si cand castigam e al nostru, cand pierdem platiti voi, poporul! Sursa via
Pierderile bancare au fost transferate in buzunarul cetateanului, prin acordul cu FMI. Dr. Bogdan Glăvan Sursa
Update: "Prioritatea nationala" spre prabusirea totala!

4 comentarii:

Free Drive Ro spunea...

noi avem incredere in BNR si in FMI, pentru ca ne dau bani, sustin economia, creiaza locuri de munca, au in vedere doar propasirea si bunastarea tuturor romanilor.
nu ne intereseaza asemenea articole defaimatoare la adresa sistemului financiar, dupa cum spunea si ante postatorul, sistemul financiar actual este singura optiune viabila (a fost demonstrat stiintific hehe :) )
ma duc acum sa cumpar niste actiuni la Goldman si poate si la JP Morgan daca imi mai ramane din ajutorul de somaj...

vala spunea...

cred ca nu exista tehnocrati romani ... e ca si cand ei spune ca exista maidanezi de rasa ...

cei care participa la greater fool's game nu cred neaparat ca vor vinde mai scump ci ca profiturile vor creste fabulos ...

as avea o intrebare oarecum off topic dar foarte serioasa...
de ce ne-a dat FMI-ul credit ? ... si inca in conditii lejere ... pe bune

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

Contractul cu FMI e negociat si semnat in mare secret numai de un numar retrans de persoane..

Nu stiu cine le-a mandatat si am impresia ca e ilegal.
Eu, care ma consider totusi informat, am aflat de toata afacerea post factum, dintr-un articol din Financial Times.

Parerea mea sincera este ca nu era necesar. In locul sustinerii leului ar fi fost preferabila devalorizarea lui, ceea ce ar fi repartizat egal costurile crizei, si nu ar fi necesitat dobanzi si conditionari economice externe.
Pur si simplu am fi saracit cinstit si transparent pentru o perioada oarecare.

camilstoenescu spunea...

pai FMI ne-a imprumutat pt ca pe termen lung au de castigat - dobanzi, dependenta etc. nu sunt economist, e doar o impresie de bun simt din exterior

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