Grosimea obrazului în imobiliare

...Eh ... "de-a lungul anilor" am avut "vreo"... singură divergenţă majoră cu manole, da' de suflet.

Replica asta... mi-a adus aminte:

A spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, Lucien Salvant, said, "Any time there is a lot of money around, there is going to be people attracted to it with evil intent."

Să consemnăm şi reacţia lui Karl Denninger:

Really? You mean like Realtors, right? (sorry, couldn't resist!)

IMO:...mulţi îi văd principalii manipulatori ai pieţei imobiliare.

Manole: ...domeniul imobiliar a creat oportunitaţi de câştiguri pentru multa lume, pur şi simplu oamenii au ales aceste meserii pentru a caştiga o pâine, nu pentru a-i jecmani pe ceilalţi.

...a fost vorba de o lacomie generalizată, răspândită în mod egal şi nediscriminatoriu între agenţi, clienţi, brokeri, evaluatori, bancheri, vânzători. Toţi au intrat cu lacomie în schema Ponzi fără să ia în seama riscurile. Nu e nimeni mai vinovat sau mai nevinovat ca alţii, totul a fost un joc al pieţei şi al lacomiei. Sursa

Ştiu şi eu, poate că egalitarismul ăsta e cam demodat, iar lăcomia uniform distribuită între client şi vânzător s-a petrecut strict accidental dintr-o... coincidenţă.

Să-i dăm agentului imobiliar ce-i al ... lui, manipularea, la nivel central, şi prosteala-n faţă, la nivelul tălparului.

Victima imobiliară îi deranja pe tovarăşii bancheri şi pe stimaţii impostori evaluatori abia după asumarea (termen perimat) unei decizii... uşuratice... de achiziţie (acum, orice ar fi) pe fondul manipulării ordinare venite... de la cine?

Eu habar n-am cine s-a ocupat de manipulare.

Precizare. Pentru a risipi instantaneu şi "restul speranţelor deşarte", îi :)implor:) pe domnii imobiliari să-şi amintească ... câte unele sau altele... despre fericitele sistemului prerevoluţionar, cum ar fi vânzătoarele de la alimentară, fiecare-n parte câte o burică autonomă a Căii Lactee. Care a părăsit corabia la timp acum are... cine ştie ce consorţiu, care nu... e-n faţă la... tonetă.

Postulat. Orice sistem imperfect dă o şansă... paraziţilor.

Atenţie români!! Americanii îşi revin

... MARE ATENŢIE!!!

Update: Homes: About to get much cheaper

If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They're expected to head a lot lower.
Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate prices.
Overall, the national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm. For the following year, the firm anticipates some stabilization with prices rising 3.6%.
...

The latest forecast is at odds with the past few months of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index. That report has given hope that most housing markets may have already stabilized because the composite index of 20 cities rose in May, June and July. Nationally, it found that home prices have gained 3.6%.
Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, which provides housing market information to the industry, however, expects a change in fortunes, however.
"I'm afraid Case-Shiller may be just a temporary reprieve," he said.
In the past, Fiserv anticipated the rapid decline in home-sale prices over the past few years -- though it underestimated the scope.
Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com, agreed with Fiserv's current assessments. "I think more price declines are coming because the foreclosure crisis is not over," he said.

Să nu ne mai ascundem după... deget...ul mijlociu, în imobiliare sunt prea mulţi MÂRLANI.

Update 2: Lucian Croitoru:

Romania este victima unor valuri de tip flux-reflux. In timpul fluxului (intrarilor de capital), PIB-ul creste puternic, creditul creste mai repede, rate ametitoare, rata de schimb se apreciaza, rezervele BNR se acumuleaza iar preturile activelor cresc foarte mult.

In timpul refluxului, cursul de schimb se depreciaza, PIB-ul cade masiv, contul curent se ajusteaza in directia dorita foarte mult.

Ce a uitat să spună "diplomaticu' năstruşnic", viitorul "fostă propunere", ar fi că în timpul refluxului preţurile "activelor"... cresc mai puţin, iar eu urma să-l corectez, precizând că, de fapt, se prăbuşesc... iremediabil (mai cu seamă în cazul României... bunăoară).

Update 3. Capetele "gumate", in general, retardate (afectate negativ) de la "two cents real estate phylosophies", să afle-n premieră mondială că susţin OBIECTIV ceea ce ÎNŢELEG EU CĂ SE ÎNTÂMPLĂ. Faptul că îmi şi doresc să se întâmple... e doar un detaliu. Că am dreptate tot timpul... sunteţi liberi să consideraţi că e voinţa lui Dumnezeu.

"Sfârşitul crizei" versiunea Croitoru

... în loc de "lincs" sau "Sfârşitul crizei!!!" 2.

Tehnocrat român

"Sunt semne că se apropie sfârşitul crizei. Economia mondială îşi revine, comerţul mondial îşi revine. Deficitele din SUA s-au redus, a scăzut de asemenea şi surplusul din Asia. Toate acestea sunt elemente care arată că sfârşitul crizei este aproape", a spus Lucian Croitoru. Sursa

Greater Fools' Game

140…That’s the current P/E for the S&P 500 based on reported earnings (earnings that include write-downs). The Tech Bubble, which by all accounts was an extraordinarily overpriced market traded around a P/E of 40 during its peak.
I realize not everyone likes to use reported earnings as a measure of value. After all, all those write-downs that are obliterating reported earnings are a one time event due to the worst credit collapse in 80+ years.
So let’s look at operating earnings (earnings without write-downs included). Today, the S&P 500 trades at a P/OE of 27.6. Put another way, assuming no earnings growth, if you bought the entire market at its current value today, it would take 30 years for you to break even on the deal.
Now, to be blunt, there are times when paying 30 times operating earnings for a business makes sense. If the business is a market leader worldwide, then the price is not too steep (this is roughly what Mars paid for Wrigley, Proctor & Gamble paid for Gilette, etc). If you’re buying a brand that dominates your industry, paying 30 times operating earnings isn’t bad.
But paying 30 times operating earnings for the entire S&P 500... including businesses that are insolvent or bankrupt : AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, etc? Sorry but I cannot imagine anyone in their right mind would be willing to pay that price.
...
This bubble is going to end, just like the last one: badly. Sursa

What this all boils down to is the overly-optimistic crowd is playing the Greater Fools' Game once again. Some players realize it. Most don't. One thing is for certain, not everyone can leave the Greater Fool's Train at the same time once it starts heading in reverse. Sursa

Crash Alert

Our ‘Crash Alert’ flag goes back up the pole ... The Dow rose another 20 points yesterday to a new bounce record. Oil rose to over $73. Gold didn’t budge. Of course, everyone now knows that the recession is over. NABE interviewed 44 economic forecasters. Four-fifths of them said the recession was over. But we don’t care what they said. These are the same seers who missed the biggest single event in financial history. There are many banking crises, recessions, panics and defaults in the record books. But none were as great as the one that hit September a year ago. Most economists didn’t see it coming; why should we trust them to tell us when it is going?
...
We just lived through the biggest bubble in history. Get ready for the biggest bust.
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Yesterday’s news tells us that consumer spending as a percentage of the entire economy has edged up to 71%. How could consumer spending be going up? Hold on, cupcake. It’s not going up. It’s going down. It’s just that the other components of the economy are going down even more.
...Consumer credit is going down (we reported the figures earlier in the week)…unemployment is going up…consumer spending is going down… …those are not the circumstances in which stocks sell for 27 times earnings…and move higher. Those are the circumstances in which stocks crash.
...
It is also becoming clearer and clearer that the feds’ efforts aren’t really working. They can give money to their friends in the banking industry. They can give money to speculators who then make bets on the stock market, among other things. They can bailout major companies. But they can’t really get much money into the real economy.
Au contraire; they take money OUT of the real economy. The feds will absorb $700 billion of private savings this year alone…to finance their deficit. They expect $1 trillion deficits at least for another 10 years. That won’t leave much money for the private sector. Sursa

Prechter

Rallies of this magnitude don't end on bad news. They end on great news. The news should get even better. Its expected!
Except underneath, if you look at the nuts and bolts, you'll realize its still a FIRE (Financials, Insurance, Real Estate) economy that just doubled down its bet at the roulette wheel.
FIRE economies don't produce anything real. They manufacture false wealth and skim from the nation's coffers. The consumer is dead. A new world-wide frugalness is slowly taking hold of the social order. There is no stopping this. There is no enticing the masses to change what their free will tells them they must do.
Governments will be under siege to stop the spending madness. Fear of the unknown (collapsed financial system as we know it) is way worse then a Great Depression II that has an intact and familiar financial system (the dollar). Sursa

Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggested Tuesday that, despite a 50 percent run-up in stock prices that has left the Dow Jones industrial average just shy of 10,000 and the S&P 500 selling at 20 times earnings, stocks are still cheap.
...
Just because Goldman is recommending this to its clients, however, doesn't mean Goldman is putting its own money behind the new bull market in mergers and acquisitions. Sursa

Ponzi Finance

Normally, debt levels as a percent of GDP would be uninteresting and immaterial; however, the current level of debt is unique in two ways. First, the asset side of the balance sheet purchased by the debt is falling in price. Second, the money that was borrowed to purchase those assets was often fraudulently expended. Neither the borrower nor the lender really expected the debt to be serviced. Rather, each party expected the asset price to rise extinguishing the debt.
This type of financial arrangement was correctly analyzed by the famous American economist Hyman Minsky in his paper, "Financial Instability Hypothesis", in which he described three phases of debt financing. The first is "hedge finance", where the lender expects a return on both principal and interest. The second is "speculative finance" where the lender expects to get interest on the loan but perhaps not the principal. The third case, where the lender expects neither the principal nor interest to be returned, is referred to as "ponzi finance".
This was typified in the last business cycle by loans issued without documentation, no down payment home loans, extremely low cap rates on commercial real estate, and the high leverage borrowing ratio of private equity funds. Even ponzi finance works as long as asset prices are rising. But once the bubble is pricked, the debtor is left with declining asset values that preclude the rollover of their obligations. Presently, in this worst of all post-war recessions we are witnessing the collapse of asset prices that were inflated by the speculation of earlier years. The aftermath of that speculation and its impact on the economy has been thoroughly studied prior to our present business cycle by the economists of yesteryear who marveled at the mania in the collective mindset of private citizens and their elected representatives who produced such bubbles.
...
From a fiscal policy perspective the outlook for economic growth appears to be one of stagnation for several years due to the size of the federal debt, which is expected to rise 35.7% from 2008 levels to 76.5% of GDP over the next ten years according to the Office of Management and Budget. This exercise in government spending is, of course, an exact replica of the Japanese experience from 1989 to the present. Their debt to GDP ratios have gone from about 50% in 1988 to about 178% today, and yet their nominal GDP is no higher than it was 17 years ago, and their employment stands at twenty year ago levels. It is somewhat unsettling that as of the last employment report the United States employed 131 million people, a level that was first reached in 2000, which means the United States has had no net job gains for almost ten years. Indeed, it appears that the fiscal chain around the free market neck is sufficiently onerous to restrain growth for several years. The promise of the government to revive growth through increased indebtedness is, indeed, an impossible promise. Sursa

Armstrong

Sursa

Bonus

Lucian Croitoru, propunerea Presedintelui Traian Basescu pentru postul de premier.
...
Lucian Croitoru, in varsta de 52 de ani, este consilierul guvernatorului BNR Mugur Isarescu de peste 10 ani.
A fost reprezentant al Romaniei la Fondul Monetar International in calitate de Senior Adviser al Executive Directors. Sursa

What exactly is the function of the financial sector in our society? Simply this: Its sole function is supplying capital efficiently to aid the real economy. The financial sector is a tool to help those that make real tools, not an end in itself. But five fatal flaws in the financial sector's current structure have created a monster that drains the real economy, promotes fraud and corruption, threatens democracy, and causes recurrent, intensifying crises. William K. Black, Assoc. Professor, Univ. of Missouri, Kansas (Deci nu-i Ţaigais') Sursa

OK, marele tehnocrat anterior, Isărescu, a fost tata Caritasului, mama FNI-ului, fratele FMI-ului (Traian Remes[o bomboană de om]: "Premierul Isarescu a fost singurul om alaturi de mine in discutiile cu FMI") şi naşul sistemului bancar românesc.

Motoul bancilor: Ce si cand castigam e al nostru, cand pierdem platiti voi, poporul! Sursa via

Pierderile bancare au fost transferate in buzunarul cetateanului, prin acordul cu FMI. Dr. Bogdan Glăvan Sursa

Update: "Prioritatea nationala" spre prabusirea totala!

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-k-black/how-the-servant-became-a_b_318010.html?ref=patrick.net

Umorul nostru are o rădăcină dacică

Da' cică, cel puţin aşa zice Badea, românii "e" miezu' din Fanta (Nu consumaţi produse Coca Cola, "dă" dependenţă şi nu "e" bune! Eu beau Pepsi! - încă accept contracte de publicitate grase că altfel... beau mai rar).

Preferatul... unora (în general public de... masă), nu şi al altora, Dan Puric, se apucă iar să proslăvească România la kilă, în paişpe Octombrie, la Ateneu, unde va susţine conferinţa: Umorul nostru are o radacina dacica, acel ras in fata mortii, pe care nu l-am intalnit la alte popoare.

Ei bine, aşa este! Acum zece minute era să cad de pe scaun de râs şi să mor eu dacă nu (expresie dacică din zona (B)REI-V) râdeam de... Danerică. Danerică este un celebru speculator de origine dacică, retras actualmente în Statele Unite ale Americii, stat federal de origine dacică, unde experimentează, de data asta pe plaiuri sheep-ice... Mioriţa (după cum bine ştim cu toţii... nimic altceva... decât o alegorie moarte-nuntă care desăvârşeşte integrarea ciobanului în ritmurile eterne ale naturii).

Chiar şi cu riscul retragerii licenţei ... blogger.com, voi reda în continuare o mostră din umorul său... dacic.

Nu traduc ca să nu-mi mai spună toţi papagalii că nu pun în evidenţă citatele... cu ajutorul ghilimelelor. E-n dracică... e clar că nu-i scris de mine şi, oricum... tot n-or să-nţeleagă.

...Oil is meandering under its broken trendline but does anyone think it deserves to be at $71???
Technicals on all predict major tops or bottoms. Just see Kenny's charts.

Sentiment is still bullish but beginning to show a fractured pattern.

They do not know what they are doing. They do not control social mood.

Corporations are so far in debt in ain't funny. I guess we can crowd into Apple and see it make an all-time high! But they are greedy little bastards aren't they? Not even a nickel in dividends.

Why do you buy Apple at $190? Answer: So you can sell it to another sucker at $210.

Debt bubble. The greatest ever.

Fannie and Freddie. Sounds like a slut and her pimp.

AIG. (better known as the "All-In Group")

Amazon, earning an amazing .32 cents a share, is a steal near $100 yes? After all they just slashed their Kindle, a $250 electronic device that reads books, so surely everyone will want one even though America doesn't read!

We have had our necessary rebound in mood since March. Fear has been correcting for almost a year to the day (Oct 24th 2008 it peaked)

Banks are bankrupt including the FED and Treasury. This weekend will likely break the 100 mark of closed banks for the year.

We have gotten greedy again with irresponsible bubbles, particularly government debt.

Credit Derivatives. OMFG....

Housing is collapsing. There are no real jobs. Unemployment is skyrocketing.

There are no green shoots.

There are, however, white lies.

Government doesn't have enough income. So they will raise taxes. Which is a kiss of death to the consumer.

But he is dead already. Leave me alone with the g'dam commercials! I already have all of China in my basement! And I am not talking dishes.

I am more bearish than ever. My simplified 5-3-5 zigzag P2 chart shows a new recovery high but poor mom and pop will, again, be bagholders via 401K's, mutual funds, IRA's, etc, etc.

All those "smart" money managers? They don't care in general...its not their money!

Hedge funds? The mere term is an oxymoron. They too will be eradicated and exposed. Think Madoff.

The asset mania bubble has peaked. Sell that baseball card collection! It won't be worth shit in 20 years no matter what you have been indoctrinated to believe.

You got a Mickey Mantle card? Sell the goddamn thing!

A painting appraised at $5K? $10K? Sell it all. Paintings won't feed your family.

Sports mania will wane. Athletes making $100M will reverse. Teams will go bankrupt.

Social mood is turning once again.

Its all a house of cards.

In the end, Nature's laws prevail. Always.

Rant over. Have a nice day! And good luck tomorrow. Sursa

Carevasăzică... ce-o vrea, dar de acum înainte trebuie să ne aplecăm... şi mai des, către poveţele unui alt dac celebru şi anume... "Legile lui Murphy".

P.S. Dacii "erea" ubicui? Iată o întrebare pentru... hăh, curios... săltăreţul domn Puric.