Here's Why House Prices Will Now Drop Another 20%

Here

... with mortgage rates so low, houses look "cheap". And for a while this seemed to be helping...

... the tax credits had only “borrowed” sales from future months with no lasting impact.

În lipsa unui comentariu de la sursă nu-mi rămâne decât să mă închin la graficul ăsta (pare a fi ca la loto).

Real Estate Owned by lenders due to foreclosures—perhaps the most hated term among bankers—is climbing.

... many of these houses are indeed shadow inventory, units withheld in hopes of higher prices (by Smeagols/Gollums).

The NAR Realtor Confidence Index is again plunging.

... traffic through new homes by prospective buyers is again falling, according to home builders.

... continue to drop (baza e în cheşări).

... those planning to buy a home within six months persist in declining (pe gânduri).

The Dark Side... of Positive Thinking

CNP

 Update ŞOC!!! Ion Ghizdeanu, CNP: Romania are capacitatea sa iasa din criza in acest an

 Update: Acum e clar?

Corectiile amanate sunt mult mai dure. “Din fericire” apocalipsa va fi… globala.
De-al de xyz(un bou, în termeni "tehnici", bull) fac criza mai frumoasa… mai atractiva… mai dezirabila. Cand s-or intampla… iminentele, imi umplu blogu’ de bananas… dancing. Sursa

  Marele cârmaci şi-a împlinit menirea, Antonov-ul se îndreaptă spre aeroportul din... Smolensk, iar purcelul... zburător este singurul rezultat palpabil al guvernării... "de dreapta".

(Atacul bocitoarelor profesioniste) : bocitoarele profesioniste ar trebui să-şi dea năframa neagră de pe ochi, să-şi ia ţechinii şi să ne mai lase!
Există şi în domeniul economic echivalentul Marghioalelor cu broboadă care se tânguie la căpătâiul vreunui nefericit pentru doi ţechini. În opinia lor, Guvernul este invariabil incompetent şi răuvoitor, catastrofele se vor amplifica, iar orice semn de revenire este doar o iluzie. (Lingău... fără serviciu :))

... serios?

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 Comisia Nationala de Prognoza are urmatoarele atributii principale:

- elaboreaza prognoze privind dezvoltarea economico-sociala a Romaniei pe termen scurt, mediu si lung in corelare cu prevederile Programului de guvernare, a strategiilor nationale, sectoriale si regionale precum si pe baza tendintelor din economia nationala si cea mondiala;

- elaboreaza, in colaborare cu institutiile de profil, Programul Economic de Preaderare, care contine principalele obiective de politica economica, in vederea indeplinirii criteriilor economice de aderare;

- participa la elaborarea instrumentelor de monitorizare a angajamentelor asumate in vederea pregatirii Romaniei pentru aderare la Uniunea Europeana;

- gestioneaza si implementeaza programe de asistenta PHARE destinate dezvoltarii capacitatii de formulare a politicilor economice, pentru elaborarea Programului Economic de Preaderare precum si in vedere perfectionarii activitatii de previziune;

- elaboreaza si utilizeaza modele economico-matematice pentru proiectia formarii si utilizarii produsului intern brut, determina eficienta utilizarii factorilor de productie la nivel macroeconomic.

Portofoliu

Martie 2008
CNP: Romania va avea in 2013 un PIB de doua ori mai mare decat in 2007 . Sursa

Iunie 2008

Cresterea economica se va mentine, pana in 2020, la un nivel de peste 5%, motorul principal fiind sectorul constructiilor care, desi isi va incetini urcarea, va inregistra cea mai accelerata dinamica, potrivit prognozei de primavara pe termen lung realizata de Comisia Nationala de Prognoza (CNP).

…

CNP a mentinut estimarile privind evolutia cursului mediu de schimb pana in 2013, rata urmand sa ajunga la 3,25 lei/euro, fata de 3,55 lei/euro in acest an. Pentru 2014 - 2020, Comisia nu mai publica nicio estimare deoarece ia in calcul trecerea la euro din 2014. Sursa

Septembrie 2008

Comisia Nationala de Prognoza (CNP) a revizuit in urcare cu 2,6 puncte procentuale estimarea pentru cresterea economica a Romaniei in acest an, la 9,1%, apreciind ca, pana in 2013, avansul produsul intern brut nu va cobori sub 6%, potrivit prognozei preliminare de toamna.
Bonus: "In prezent, economia Romaniei inregistreaza cei mai buni parametri din istoria sa moderna. Iar daca in 2009 vom inregistra o crestere economica de 6,5%, nu inseamna o prabusire, sau hard landing (aterizare fortata n.r.), cum se vehiculeaza, ci tot un avans al economiei. Nimeni nu creste cu 9% tot timpul", a declarat Vosganian. Sursa

Octombrie 2008

Comisia Nationala de Prognoza a revizuit in scadere estimarea privind cresterea economica din 2009, de la 6,5% la 6%, anticipand incetiniri ale activitatii in toate sectoarele. Sursa

Ianuarie 2009

Pentru anul in curs, estimarile publicate luni de CNP indica o crestere economica de 2,5%, cu un PIB de 579,021 miliarde lei. Sursa

Aprilie 2009
Prognoza oficială - România revine la creştere economică din 2011 Sursa

Noiembrie 2009

Ghizdeanu (CNP): Romania va iesi din recesiune la sfarsitul lui 2009 sau inceputul lui 2010.
El a adaugat ca nu exclude o evolutie pozitiva sau apropiata de 0 nici in ultimul trimestru al acestui an si ca in 2010 PIB-ul ar putea creste chiar cu 1-2%, peste estimarile actuale. Sursa

Aprilie 2010
Romania va iesi din recesiune in trimestrul al doilea din 2010 Sursa

Conspiracy theory

Update:

... if you believe that the economic growth since 1996 was robust enough to justify the doubling of home prices during that time, then perhaps home prices are now at the “correct” levels.  But if you believe that most of the economic growth since 1996 was built on bubbles and debt, then it’s hard to find a reason why homes should be twice as expensive. Sursa

 

 

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“In the Spring and Summer of 1994, Secretary Henry Cisneros met with leaders of major national organizations from the housing industry to solicit their views about establishing a national homeownership partnership.”
- HUD, "Partners in the American Dream", May 1995 

 “In 1994, at the President’s request, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) began work to develop a National Homeownership Strategy with the goal of lifting the overall homeownership rate to 67.5 percent by the end of the year 2000.” - U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research website

"At the request of President Clinton, HUD is working with dozens of national leaders in government and the housing industry to implement the National Homeownership Strategy, an unprecedented public-private partnership to increase homeownership to a record-high level over the next 6 years.” - Urban Policy Brief Number 2, August 1995

The National Homeownership Strategy (NHS) was a massive, complex, coordinated undertaking. The NHS’ integrated effort included alliances with influential public, private and non-profit entities.  At the time of publication in 1995 there were 56 “National Partnerships” including the American Bankers Association, Appraisal Institute, Fannie Mae, Federal Home Loan Bank System, Freddie Mac, Mortgage Bankers Association of America, Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, National Association of Home Builders, National Association of Real Estate Brokers, National Foundation of Consumer Credit, National Urban League and HUD.

The public policy initiative consisted of 100 distinct action items detailed within “The National Homeownership Strategy: Partners in the American Dream” released by HUD in May 1995. 

Loosened lending standards, increased access to credit and a massive reallocation of capital dramatically expanded demand for houses.  As would be expected anytime demand grows faster than supply creating relative scarcity, prices started to rise.

While the NHS achieved its objective of record homeownership gains, in doing so it also originated a housing price bubble which distorted economic activity for a decade and ultimately caused the ongoing Affordable Mortgage Depression.

The National Homeownership Strategy cites four fundamental benefits:”  Urban Policy Brief Number 2, August 1995
    * "Through homeownership, a family...invests in an asset that can grow in value and... generate financial security."
    * "Homeownership enables people to have greater control and exercise more responsibility over their living environment."
    * "Homeownership helps stabilize neighborhoods and strengthen communities."
    * "Homeownership helps generate jobs and stimulate economic growth."

TheAffordableMortgageDepression.com observes that the net effect of The National Homeownership Strategy was to:

    * Create overvalued and overleveraged housing assets that are falling in value and undermining financial security

    * Encourage people to behave irresponsibility and undermine control over living environments
    * Destabilize neighborhoods and weaken the communities dependent upon them
    * Destroy jobs and disrupt economic growth

Phase Transitions, Symmetry and Post-Bubble Declines

Learn to recognize patterns