Guesstimates on November 15, 2024
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miercuri, 23 martie 2011
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România nudă-n...PIB-u' gol...şi ăla umflat!!!
8 comentarii:
drumu' spre 3 lei pe-un euroi e... irefutabil
Eu simt nevoia de o legendă şi la acronime/culori. MACD jos înseamnă buy ?
Poate spun o prostie, mie mi se pare că dacă la un curs de 4.2 RON/EUR exporturile cresc brusc, leul este ceva cam subapreciat. Cum dobânda la lei este mult mai mare decât la euro, se vor putea face profituri împrumutând euro la dobândă mică, schimbând în lei la preţ bun, depus lei cu dobândă mare şi schimbând lei în euro cu câştig bunicel (dacă BNR ţine cursul fix).
Graficul ce spune ?
Ma simt cu musca pe fesa pentru ca n-am specificat pentru primul grafic EMA 13 - pink, EMA 34 - light greenish; si EMA 21 - pink, EMA 55 - green pentru al doilea.
Am postat graficu' de greata generata de volumul de titluri aparute saptamana asta in zf.
Neavand date mai vechi de ianuarie 2007... din ceea ce se vede, leul a trecut prin faza de cea mai ridicata... râvneală.
Anul trecut am cam "preanticipat": "Un alt exemplu de tembelism, post-ul asta dateaza din 20 ianuarie, intre timp "economistii" ne-au explicat cum se castiga din dobanzile mari pe leu, au luat în balon pe "adeptii deprecierii leului" si pe "necredinciosii in economia romaneasca", am avut parte de "spectacol la bursa" si... au trecut 2 saptamani. :)"
Nu stiu ce-i cu exporturile. La mine-n urbe a disparut intr-un an de zile... o fabrica intreaga... situata visavis de un centru de colectare... fier vechi. Cum sa-ti spun, anul asta fabrica aia nu mai e. :)
P.S. Asa arata un buy.
Eu nu inteleg nimic din aceste grafice.
Pentru cei ca mine imi spui te rog interpretarea lor?
@chio
Pentru "cei ca tine" am pus si graficul de anul trecut... de pe vremea primei iesiri din criza. Poti juca "observa diferenta" dupa modelul din revista "Femeia". :)
Pe atunci leul se apropia de... paritate fata de euro in gurile tuturor melițelor proaste din "jurnalismul" românesc și... de la guvernare.
La nici cateva saptamani, Basescu iesea grav pe sticla sa spuna tuturor ce se... taie. :D
Eu zic că BNR, primul valutist al țării, dă tonul în piață, lăsând cursul până unde îi convine și pentru a aspira... banii fazanilor, iar pe vreme buna merg exportate niste profituri... capitalul străin fiind respectat cum se cuvine. Desigur, "zi pipul" va fi informat că BNR țintește inflația.
Nu eu am spus în primăvara lui 2010 că România a ieșit de criză, nu eu sunt 'geniu Radulescu sa spun 3 luni mai tarziu ca euro va ajunge 6-7 lei si... iarasi nu eu vad euro sub 4 lei... acum.
Speculatorii se infrupta din plin intuind politicile iresponsabile ale BNR, iar guvernul, reprezentat de specialistul Dragoi, cu... datoriile contribuabililor, cumparatorii de euro la 4.5, dolari la 3.6 si vanzatorii de euro pe 4 lei sau dolari pe 2.9 duc BNR si bancile din Romania pe profit si trimit speculatorii fericiti... pe alte meleaguri.
Mulțam de legendă, trebuie să recunosc că mă cam depășesc indicatorii respectivi. Am încercat să citesc și revista Femeia și nu a ajutat prea mult :) Noroc că nu mă ocup cu speculații financiare...
Ziceam că o monedă subapreciată încurajează exportul și descurajează importul, iar dacă deficitul extern se reduce după ce creștea atunci și cursul monedei e motivat să-și inverseze trendul.
Acum... așa se vede de la înălțimea mea, poate sunt lucruri pe care nu le iau în calcul, speculatori, mutări de capital, etc.
Probabil exportăm și fier vechi, crește PIB-ul pe moment, da' pe urmă... Până una-alta, eu mai export niște software la preț de dumping, nu m-au convins încă să mă cumpere cu totul.
Pentru inversarea trendului ar fi nevoie de doua-trei luni. O luna de excedent am mai avut in august 2009. Nici nu-ti imaginezi cum se udase... khris.
Ungaria e pe excedent de mai bine de un an, iar forintul nu da... spectacole.
iconomia bubuie iar leul se apreciaza direct proportional.
dupa argentina, tunisia, egipt etc. fmi trebuie sa dea primul exemplu pozitiv pe piata internationala cu productia media "zombie ROMania".
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